"Very Seldom" Drop Rates Case Study

I've often wondered what the actual drop rates are in regards to the "very seldom" tag. I learned that the "seldom" drop for adventure flights is around 10%, but after getting no answer when I asked GI about the percentages, I decided to do a case study to get an idea of the drop rates. I listed the steps below:
1) I flew to two different destinations: Frankfurt and Stockholm
2) Frankfurt has one collection and the weather item. I only paid attention to the collection drops.
3) Stockholm has one collection, the weather item, and the items required to build the furniture factory. Both collections are "very seldom"....keep that in mind
4)I kept track of each collection until I collected one of each of the 5 collection items.

Frankfurt Results
Here are the results for Frankfurt. The overall results are about 4%, but the "rare" item was only around 0.3%

Stockholm Results
Here are the results for Stockholm. These rates were a little bit better at 5%, but the really interesting finding is the difference in drop rates between the collection items and the items required for the furniture factory, which was around 36% overall. Both of these collections are labeled as "very seldom". That's a huge spread.

This explains why completing some of these collections take so long. These drop rates are downright dismal. They should double all drop rates (5% to 10% for "very seldom", etc.), but with that most likely not happening, it's good to go with an overall collection drop of 5%, with the rare item being less than 1%
Let me know what you guys think.

 

[Dafsade]

I've often wondered what the actual drop rates are in regards to the "very seldom" tag. I learned that the "seldom" drop for adventure flights is around 10%, but after getting no answer when I asked GI about the percentages, I decided to do a case study to get an idea of the drop rates. I listed the steps below:
1) I flew to two different destinations: Frankfurt and Stockholm
2) Frankfurt has one collection and the weather item. I only paid attention to the collection drops.
3) Stockholm has one collection, the weather item, and the items required to build the furniture factory. Both collections are "very seldom"....keep that in mind
4)I kept track of each collection until I collected one of each of the 5 collection items.

Frankfurt Results
Here are the results for Frankfurt. The overall results are about 4%, but the "rare" item was only around 0.3%
View attachment 13278

Stockholm Results
Here are the results for Stockholm. These rates were a little bit better at 5%, but the really interesting finding is the difference in drop rates between the collection items and the items required for the furniture factory, which was around 36% overall. Both of these collections are labeled as "very seldom". That's a huge spread.
View attachment 13279

This explains why completing some of these collections take so long. These drop rates are downright dismal. They should double all drop rates (5% to 10% for "very seldom", etc.), but with that most likely not happening, it's good to go with an overall collection drop of 5%, with the rare item being less than 1%
Let me know what you guys think.

Thanks @Navigata07 for this usefull work ! It is exactly what I wondered !

I thought (without any experiment) that all "seldom" are different... We have to say that in mathematics, "seldom" doesn't mean anything ! I think they use this fake word to use the percentage they want without give it us ! But it would be funny to modify the variable where there is the pourcentage and put 100% ! I agree, the game would be too much easy !

 

[Navigata07]

Thanks @Navigata07 for this usefull work ! It is exactly what I wondered !

I thought (without any experiment) that all "seldom" are different... We have to say that in mathematics, "seldom" doesn't mean anything ! I think they use this fake word to use the percentage they want without give it us ! But it would be funny to modify the variable where there is the pourcentage and put 100% ! I agree, the game would be too much easy !

That's exactly why they dont tell us....so that there can be variety in the percentage spread. If they gave solid numbers, they know we would hold them accountable if we got a lower percentage

 

[Navigata07]

But my thing is that the percentages are downright pathetic. That's why the vets rely more on adventure buildings to complete the higher collections. That to me is a problem. You shouldn't have to go that route to complete collections

 

[Davescharf]

But my thing is that the percentages are downright pathetic. That's why the vets rely more on adventure buildings to complete the higher collections. That to me is a problem. You shouldn't have to go that route to complete collections

The rewards are better on the adventure buildings (1600 plus a gold token...then 2,000 coins, a Sky Captain bonus, and 3 gold tokens once you complete the collection of collections) The daily collection item also lets you get collections faster than any flights.

For example my first nuclear power plant is being built and I’ve flown a total 17 flights to Tehran to get the 5 collections.

 

[Navigata07]

The rewards are better on the adventure buildings (1600 plus a gold token...then 2,000 coins, a Sky Captain bonus, and 3 gold tokens once you complete the collection of collections) The daily collection item also lets you get collections faster than any flights.

For example my first nuclear power plant is being built and I’ve flown a total 17 flights to Tehran to get the 5 collections.

However, Adventure buildings aren't best when you want to focus on a specific collection. You still have to wait until luck is on your side. It's the best way to do collections passively....by a longshot

 

[Davescharf]

If drop rates are really that terrible on the collections though I’d question whether an active approach makes sense. I’ve never really considered it, I’m more thinking out loud

There are only a few bonus buildings from my point of view that are worth having in my city. If I get the other collections through obtaining stars then great but it doesn’t matter whether I get 2000 coins from collection X or collection Y.

I came to this realization as I was looking to buy more Jumbos to 3 Star locations. I decided to skip to Falcons because I can fly more passengers in a day. The collections are great but many days I can get 10,000 coins just from my adventure buildings

 

[Aardvark]

Ok so firstly, sample size issues here. My Stockholm starts are 23 drops from 275 flights, I think a couple of those drops might have come as chests items, but still knocking around the same level.

Secondly, Ivan on here a while ago that they are “banded” so drops on weekly alliance maps are marked as very seldom, and are believed to be around 1%. These Falcon ones are also given the same marking, but run at let’s say 5%. “Very seldom” just means very low, there isn’t a generic % you can apply.

The other point Ivan made, is that generally, the longer the flight, the higher the % chance of a drop, so a giant has a better chance than the jumbo or Falcon either side of it.

 

[Robby Kusuma]

Here is the math :
Always means 100%
Others means almost never or Planes break down.....

 

[Navigata07]

If drop rates are really that terrible on the collections though I’d question whether an active approach makes sense. I’ve never really considered it, I’m more thinking out loud

There are only a few bonus buildings from my point of view that are worth having in my city. If I get the other collections through obtaining stars then great but it doesn’t matter whether I get 2000 coins from collection X or collection Y.

I came to this realization as I was looking to buy more Jumbos to 3 Star locations. I decided to skip to Falcons because I can fly more passengers in a day. The collections are great but many days I can get 10,000 coins just from my adventure buildings

It works out to be about the same in terms of passive vs active....assuming you have a lot of adventure buildings. Even with a few, you can see a bit of an impact on collection completion. I think the best tactic is to do both; actively fly a lot to the destination, and have adventure buildings working for you in the background.

 

[Navigata07]

Ok so firstly, sample size issues here. My Stockholm starts are 23 drops from 275 flights, I think a couple of those drops might have come as chests items, but still knocking around the same level.

Secondly, Ivan on here a while ago that they are “banded” so drops on weekly alliance maps are marked as very seldom, and are believed to be around 1%. These Falcon ones are also given the same marking, but run at let’s say 5%. “Very seldom” just means very low, there isn’t a generic % you can apply.

The other point Ivan made, is that generally, the longer the flight, the higher the % chance of a drop, so a giant has a better chance than the jumbo or Falcon either side of it.

In regards to sample sizes, larger may not be better in this case, because your "rare item" may change over the period of time you're gathering your samples, which is why I stopped as soon as I gathered at least one of each item.
The "very seldom" being banded is true, but not all of us saw that message from Ivan, hence why I had to discover it for myself. It could range from <1% to as large as 40% based on my observation. I believe the numbers I generated, because at any single period in time, this is the experience I will most likely have when it comes to active collecting.

 

[Navigata07]

@Capt.S I noticed you've been flying to Stockholm a lot recently. How often have you been able to complete the collection associated with Stockholm? How are the drop rates for you?

 

[Capt.S]

@Capt.S I noticed you've been flying to Stockholm a lot recently. How often have you been able to complete the collection associated with Stockholm? How are the drop rates for you?

I completed the collection once and need one more item to complete it for a second time. The drops for furniture factory items are very good. Btw, Stockholm happens to be my alliance task this week.

 

[Navigata07]

I completed the collection once and need one more item to complete it for a second time. The drops for furniture factory items are very good. Btw, Stockholm happens to be my alliance task this week.

Interesting. You completed the collection once and about to do it a second time? All from flying last week and this week?

 

[Capt.S]

Interesting. You completed the collection once and about to do it a second time? All from flying last week and this week?

I didn’t fly Stockholm last week. Many collection items come from my adventure buildings so flying just fills in the blanks.

 

[Navigata07]

I didn’t fly Stockholm last week. Many collection items come from my adventure buildings so flying just fills in the blanks.

Oh ok....thought you did. Adventure buildings helping out certainly makes sense. I was seeing if your drop rates are as dismal as mine. For the construction of factories, the drop rates are excellent. It's the other collection that is an issue

 

[Wired Parrott]

Used to be quite the thing to argue over these drop rates and their associated percentage.
Eventually Ivan did give us the fact that each category has a range. By playing it was obvious
this range could be quite large at the very seldom level.

Another point of contention is the one item from most very seldom collections that is more like
almost never. It has been said that this is just a consequence of being random. My problem with
that explanation uses that same explanation against itself. If all 5 items from a very seldom collection
have the same range then every very seldom collection would not have exactly 1 almost never item.
There is no randomness to having always 1 almost never item on the contrary it is the exact opposite
of random. The only random thing about it is which of the 5 items will be your almost never item. I argued
this point quite a bit back in my first year or so but was always taken down a notch by denial. It really
seems quite obvious but who knows perhaps there is something else at play here.

 

[Navigata07]

Used to be quite the thing to argue over these drop rates and their associated percentage.
Eventually Ivan did give us the fact that each category has a range. By playing it was obvious
this range could be quite large at the very seldom level.

Another point of contention is the one item from most very seldom collections that is more like
almost never. It has been said that this is just a consequence of being random. My problem with
that explanation uses that same explanation against itself. If all 5 items from a very seldom collection
have the same range then every very seldom collection would not have exactly 1 almost never item.
There is no randomness to having always 1 almost never item on the contrary it is the exact opposite
of random. The only random thing about it is which of the 5 items will be your almost never item. I argued
this point quite a bit back in my first year or so but was always taken down a notch by denial. It really
seems quite obvious but who knows perhaps there is something else at play here.

Agreed that there definitely is a range, as my original post stated. The building drops were between 30 and 40% vs my "almost never" item which was around 0.3%. I get that it's banded, and I also agree that the "almost never" item isnt random at all. The only thing that's random is the item that is "almost never".
My concern is that I feel like ALL my drop rates are lower than average. I feel like other players have an easier time completing collections than myself (not including our beloved adventure buildings). I feel like an overhaul of the drop rates would be great. Not to make it ridiculously easy mind you, but to make it that you have to fly quite a bit, but stay motivated in doing so.

 

[Capt.S]

Agreed that there definitely is a range, as my original post stated. The building drops were between 30 and 40% vs my "almost never" item which was around 0.3%. I get that it's banded, and I also agree that the "almost never" item isnt random at all. The only thing that's random is the item that is "almost never".
My concern is that I feel like ALL my drop rates are lower than average. I feel like other players have an easier time completing collections than myself (not including our beloved adventure buildings). I feel like an overhaul of the drop rates would be great. Not to make it ridiculously easy mind you, but to make it that you have to fly quite a bit, but stay motivated in doing so.

Have you looked at how various bonuses affect your drop rates?

 

[Navigata07]

Have you looked at how various bonuses affect your drop rates?

Yes I have. I noticed that golden dice improved my drop rate from the typical 10% for seldom vs the 25% with golden dice. I got the rough estimate of 25% after doing my first case study with adventure flights.
However, I shouldn't need to rely on bonuses to get drops. Bonuses should just speed up the process. For instance, at the moment, I'm doing flights to Frankfurt and Stockholm. Both flights have crappy drop rates, but the Stockholm flights are even worse now than when I did the case study. Frankfurt is slightly better, and at least I see some small progress with that destination.
The original intent of this game was to get drops from flights, but because it's so dismal, people are relying on Adventure buildings to complete collections, which isn't right in my opinion. Adventure buildings should be a supplement, not a primary source.