"Very Seldom" Drop Rates Case Study

I've often wondered what the actual drop rates are in regards to the "very seldom" tag. I learned that the "seldom" drop for adventure flights is around 10%, but after getting no answer when I asked GI about the percentages, I decided to do a case study to get an idea of the drop rates. I listed the steps below:
1) I flew to two different destinations: Frankfurt and Stockholm
2) Frankfurt has one collection and the weather item. I only paid attention to the collection drops.
3) Stockholm has one collection, the weather item, and the items required to build the furniture factory. Both collections are "very seldom"....keep that in mind
4)I kept track of each collection until I collected one of each of the 5 collection items.

Frankfurt Results
Here are the results for Frankfurt. The overall results are about 4%, but the "rare" item was only around 0.3%

Stockholm Results
Here are the results for Stockholm. These rates were a little bit better at 5%, but the really interesting finding is the difference in drop rates between the collection items and the items required for the furniture factory, which was around 36% overall. Both of these collections are labeled as "very seldom". That's a huge spread.

This explains why completing some of these collections take so long. These drop rates are downright dismal. They should double all drop rates (5% to 10% for "very seldom", etc.), but with that most likely not happening, it's good to go with an overall collection drop of 5%, with the rare item being less than 1%
Let me know what you guys think.

 

[Agent_L]

Let's consider an example for the ranges @Wired Parrott cited (not actual values):
always: 100%
very often: 75-100
often:50-75
seldom:25-50
very seldom:0-25
So, if in this example a particular drop rate is set to 38.619%, it's displayed as "seldom" and if it's 99% - as "very often".

Back to reality: if "seldom" means "between 15% and 5%" (to be consistent with the 10% finding), then "very seldom" means "everything below 5%". Be it 4.99% or 0.00001%. The big problem with "very seldom" is that it's the last range. So everything below certain value falls into this range. One given drop rate could be million times smaller than the other and both would still qualify as "very seldom".

Therefore, in my opinion, is not possible to extract a meaningful value from "very seldom".

However, I shouldn't need to rely on bonuses to get drops. Bonuses should just speed up the process.

You don't have to rely on bonuses. They "only" speed up the process. From about 10 years to 4.

Another point of contention is the one item from most very seldom collections that is more like almost never. It has been said that this is just a consequence of being random. My problem with that explanation uses that same explanation against itself. If all 5 items from a very seldom collection have the same range then every very seldom collection would not have exactly 1 almost never item. There is no randomness to having always 1 almost never item on the contrary it is the exact opposite of random. The only random thing about it is which of the 5 items will be your almost never item. I argued this point quite a bit back in my first year or so but was always taken down a notch by denial. It really seems quite obvious but who knows perhaps there is something else at play here.

I suspect a classic rookie mistake of using more than one random number generator or using one, but initializing (seeding) it more than once. The problem is that it's not a bug that can be fixed, it's the lack of understanding of how PRNG works. The code is actually correct - according to it's author's misconceptions. Just as Germans were sure that Enigma is working.

 

[Navigata07]

Let's consider an example for the ranges @Wired Parrott cited (not actual values):
always: 100%
very often: 75-100
often:50-75
seldom:25-50
very seldom:0-25
So, if in this example a particular drop rate is set to 38.619%, it's displayed as "seldom" and if it's 99% - as "very often".

Back to reality: if "seldom" means "between 15% and 5%" (to be consistent with the 10% finding), then "very seldom" means "everything below 5%". Be it 4.99% or 0.00001%. The big problem with "very seldom" is that it's the last range. So everything below certain value falls into this range. One given drop rate could be million times smaller than the other and both would still qualify as "very seldom".

Therefore, in my opinion, is not possible to extract a meaningful value from "very seldom".

You don't have to rely on bonuses. They "only" speed up the process. From about 10 years to 4.


I suspect a classic rookie mistake of using more than one random number generator or using one, but initializing (seeding) it more than once. The problem is that it's not a bug that can be fixed, it's the lack of understanding of how PRNG works. The code is actually correct - according to it's author's misconceptions. Just as Germans were sure that Enigma is working.

Lol 10 years to 4 is very accurate. I agree with you in terms of the "very seldom" scenario. But the issue is that even with "very seldom" being less than 5%, the furniture factory drops (also very seldom) was a whopping 30 to 40%!!! That's a HUGE swing for "very seldom". They drop more for me than the seldom drops from Adventure flights. Clearly something is amiss here just as @Wired Parrott stated, but GI will have none of it.
Sidenote: Can WP take over GI and instill the drop rates he presented? Those values make a whole lot more sense to me.

 

[Capt.S]

Lol 10 years to 4 is very accurate. I agree with you in terms of the "very seldom" scenario. But the issue is that even with "very seldom" being less than 5%, the furniture factory drops (also very seldom) was a whopping 30 to 40%!!! That's a HUGE swing for "very seldom". They drop more for me than the seldom drops from Adventure flights. Clearly something is amiss here just as @Wired Parrott stated, but GI will have none of it.
Sidenote: Can WP take over GI and instill the drop rates he presented? Those values make a whole lot more sense to me.

If you think Stockholm is bad try Caracas. I must have done well over 500 flights and still haven’t collected enough for the T-11 upgrade.

 

[Navigata07]

If you think Stockholm is bad try Caracas. I must have done well over 500 flights and still haven’t collected enough for the T-11 upgrade.

Everyone will have their flight that is a bother, but your dilemma just further proved my point. Both have to do with either building or upgrading (non collection item), yet our experiences are quite different. I struggled with the caracas/helsinki drops too. I think it just points to the need for a flight drop overhaul. Too many things dont add up. Its fine if they dont reveal the actual numbers to us, but at least be consistent. They don't realize that there are some very intelligent players who will eventually figure out that things arent adding up