Update 7.22

[Jenn B]

This is the pattern I was seeing earlier.View attachment 37813View attachment 37814

One thing did change since then and that was that I did get a completed "Gates to Hell Collection".

You can recreate that pattern at home by rolling dice. Take 1 6-sided die and roll it 10 times. Then roll it 20 times. You will get very uneven distribution of the numbers (i.e., 3 sixes, 6 fives, 1 four, 3 threes, 5 twos, 2 ones).

If you are into stats, this is called random selection with replacement. Each time you roll the die, there are equal chances one number will be on top. These chances reset each time you roll the die (i.e., rolling a 5 one time has no bearing on the results from the next die roll).

If you roll the die 1000 times, you will be pretty close to an even distribution of the numbers.

 

[Harcourt]

If you roll the die 1000 times, you will be pretty close to an even distribution of the numbers.

I think I will take your word for it

Regards
Harcourt

 

[cazmillon]

Having trouble seeing the exclamation ready mark on the volcano today. Too much smoke!

 

[LuvCatsGames]

Yep already see it. Owl destination was +2, Hawk was +3, and Raven +4 today.

 

[LX Air - Teresa]

I think I will take your word for it

Regards
Harcourt

You don’t need to. Here it goes a very simple example. Take this collection

the total number of items is 94, so the percentages are, approximately
10%-0%-20%-22%-48%
wait! What? Those ancient skull NEVER drop! And big paws are twice as likely to drop as tails and backbones. These dropping patterns are really really biased!
yes? ...... NO 😁
add those to the number of completed collections I’ve gathered since 2016

and now let’s re-do the percentages...
first the raw frequencies: 1095-1086-1105-1107-1131, totals 5524 items
....
and rounded to the unit percentages
20%-20%-20%-20%-20%

yes,... AC is really a long term game 😁😊

 

[Harcourt]

You don’t need to. Here it goes a very simple example. Take this collection
View attachment 37817
the total number of items is 94, so the percentages are, approximately
10%-0%-20%-22%-48%
wait! What? Those ancient skull NEVER drop! And big paws are twice as likely to drop as tails and backbones. These dropping patterns are really really biased!
yes? ...... NO 😁
add those to the number of completed collections I’ve gathered since 2016
View attachment 37818
and now let’s re-do the percentages...
first the raw frequencies: 1095-1086-1105-1107-1131, totals 5524 items
....
and rounded to the unit percentages
20%-20%-20%-20%-20%

yes,... AC is really a long term game 😁😊

That was what Free2play always used to say.

BTW I heard on the radio the other day that some infinities are bigger than other infinities !

Regards
Harcourt

 

[cazmillon]

That was what Free2play always used to say.

BTW I heard on the radio the other day that some infinities are bigger than other infinities !

Regards
Harcourt

Like forever and a day

 

[jpm-wv]

Like forever and a day

You can recreate that pattern at home by rolling dice. Take 1 6-sided die and roll it 10 times. Then roll it 20 times. You will get very uneven distribution of the numbers (i.e., 3 sixes, 6 fives, 1 four, 3 threes, 5 twos, 2 ones).

If you are into stats, this is called random selection with replacement. Each time you roll the die, there are equal chances one number will be on top. These chances reset each time you roll the die (i.e., rolling a 5 one time has no bearing on the results from the next die roll).

If you roll the die 1000 times, you will be pretty close to an even distribution of the numbers.

Alright, that would apply for truly random events (and sometimes, you have to wonder there as a die may have imperfections or the person throwing the die might rigging things).

Unfortunately, computers aren't as random you think. A more correct term would probably be pseudo-random numbers. Computers are excellent at doing precise calculations with mass amounts of data that would be nearly impossible for a human being to do. You have what are called pseudo-number generators that at some point, probably would repeat number sequences. Those generators have to have a value as a seed and some use things like a clock value or may uptime (it depends). Many of them can be cracked if they are predictable enough. Wikipedia has an overview of what I'm trying to say (see: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Random_number_generation#Computational_methods ). Some pseudo-random number generators may not even be suitable for cryptography where values are hashed together.

 

[Jenn B]

Alright, that would apply for truly random events (and sometimes, you have to wonder there as a die may have imperfections or the person throwing the die might rigging things).

Unfortunately, computers aren't as random you think. A more correct term would probably be pseudo-random numbers. Computers are excellent at doing precise calculations with mass amounts of data that would be nearly impossible for a human being to do. You have what are called pseudo-number generators that at some point, probably would repeat number sequences. Those generators have to have a value as a seed and some use things like a clock value or may uptime (it depends). Many of them can be cracked if they are predictable enough. Wikipedia has an overview of what I'm trying to say (see: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Random_number_generation#Computational_methods ). Some pseudo-random number generators may not even be suitable for cryptography where values are hashed together.

Yes, computers do not actually generate randomness... using the RAND() function in Excel and you will not get perfect randomness. But what you are seeing in not a deliberate manipulation of the code. It is as close to randomness as you can get with a computer. @Barkmi4 (Mike) posted a pic of one of his collections that he has never collected, and it is very close to an even distribution.

Also, I think you just accused me of cheating at Catan... thems fightin' words in this house!

Happy flying!

 

[LX Air - Teresa]

BTW I heard on the radio the other day that some infinities are bigger than other infinities !

Regards
Harcourt

and that’s also true... at least in the math world 😆

 

[TheVanillaSun]

I’ve done 48 event flights and not a single drop yet (except for marshmallows). Is that happening for anyone else?

 

[Jenn B]

I’ve done 48 event flights and not a single drop yet (except for marshmallows). Is that happening for anyone else?

What bonuses are you using? Drops aren't great even with SG. Just have to keep going... 🙂

 

[TheVanillaSun]

What bonuses are you using? Drops aren't great even with SG. Just have to keep going... 🙂

I'm not using any bonuses yet. I have a Spy Glass which I'm saving for a day when I have more free time (to make sure I get the most out of it). Hopefully I'll get something then….

 

[Barkmi4 (Mike)]

Yes, computers do not actually generate randomness... using the RAND() function in Excel and you will not get perfect randomness. But what you are seeing in not a deliberate manipulation of the code. It is as close to randomness as you can get with a computer. @Barkmi4 (Mike) posted a pic of one of his collections that he has never collected, and it is very close to an even distribution.

Also, I think you just accused me of cheating at Catan... thems fightin' words in this house!

Happy flying!

Some of the collections I have most of below. The vast majority have converged to be pretty equal, with a small percentage variance. There will always be a few stubborn collections around that don’t conform, and that supports the theory.

 

[Deetee04]

During the event in 2018 the extra fuel needed for event flights disappeared after completing the event. In 2019 the extra fuel was still needed after getting the reward.
How is it this year? Because I am concentrating on getting the third star for Mauna Loa and Popocatepetl and not nesseceraly have to complete the event by flying for the Cold War collection. If the fuel is back to normal after completing I will buy some sets for greenies. For me that's easier then flying to destinations I already three-starred....

 

[cazmillon]

During the event in 2018 the extra fuel needed for event flights disappeared after completing the event. In 2019 the extra fuel was still needed after getting the reward.
How is it this year? Because I am concentrating on getting the third star for Mauna Loa and Popocatepetl and not nesseceraly have to complete the event by flying for the Cold War collection. If the fuel is back to normal after completing I will buy some sets for greenies. For me that's easier then flying to destinations I already three-starred....

Extra fuel is still required I'm afraid

 

[Deetee04]

Extra fuel is still required I'm afraid

Thanks! Then I don't need to spend greenies to complete it quick and save fuel.

 

[jpm-wv]

Yes, computers do not actually generate randomness... using the RAND() function in Excel and you will not get perfect randomness. But what you are seeing in not a deliberate manipulation of the code. It is as close to randomness as you can get with a computer. @Barkmi4 (Mike) posted a pic of one of his collections that he has never collected, and it is very close to an even distribution.

Also, I think you just accused me of cheating at Catan... thems fightin' words in this house!

Happy flying!

Interestingly enough, rolling 2 dice in Monopoly is not as random as you think. Let me try to prove it:

Number Possible ways to get the number
2 1-1
3 1-2 2-1
4 1-3 3-1 2-2
5 1-4 4-1 2-3 3-2
6 1-5 5-1 2-4 4-2 3-3
7 1-6 6-1 2-5 5-2 3-4 4-3
8 2-6 6-2 3-5 5-3 4-4
9 3-6 6-3 4-5 5-4
10 4-6 6-4 5-5
11 5-6 6-5
12 6-6

 

[LX Air - Teresa]

Interestingly enough, rolling 2 dice in Monopoly is not as random as you think. Let me try to prove it:

Number Possible ways to get the number
2 1-1
3 1-2 2-1
4 1-3 3-1 2-2
5 1-4 4-1 2-3 3-2
6 1-5 5-1 2-4 4-2 3-3
7 1-6 6-1 2-5 5-2 3-4 4-3
8 2-6 6-2 3-5 5-3 4-4
9 3-6 6-3 4-5 5-4
10 4-6 6-4 5-5
11 5-6 6-5
12 6-6

It’s random alright. It just isn’t uniform, I.e. with equal probabilities
but we can predict for example that out of 3600 rollings, around 100 will sum 12... and around 600 will sum 7
i mean, if the dices are fair and fairly rolled...

 

[Constant Phoenix]

Might be time to change platform. Get the eel ing Amozon Fire is on it’s way out for GI. Not the first time for you.

Hi it might be just me but thinking the was thing, my regular Android updated Friday on its own,
But my other game Amazon android no update as of yet, also when you buy from Amazon store you don't get the items,
Amazon rep said very poor communications with them any GI. Might be time to change?