General The curse of the third item

[ArditoDesio]

😩 😩 😩

 

[A-Flyin]

 

[Wheelz]

Aaarrrgh.... come on !

 

[ArditoDesio]

 

[Martin L.]

True true true

 

[Tito]

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Wouldn't it be awesome if we could do a trade? I have a multitude of Jefferson (12) but Lincolns never drop. I need two more Lincolns than I will be done.

 

[Harcourt]

Enough Said !!

 

[Shark Boy]

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I have the same number of items as well! Horsehead nebula missing

 

[Barkmi4 (Mike)]

🤨

Also, every time I see this thread I think of Precious;

 

[Aerospatiale]

Talk about lopsided collected items...

 

[ArditoDesio]

Question: is this "very seldom"? Or is there a trick to make pilots spend greenies?
In your opinion, is it possible to understand if there is, and what is, the variable that regulates this drop trend?
Mine is a math and statistics question, absolutely not a complaint.
@Barkmi4 (Mike), since you care about numbers, what do your elf-eyes see?

 

[KhrysLo]

Question: is this "very seldom"? Or is there a trick to make pilots spend greenies?
In your opinion, is it possible to understand if there is, and what is, the variable that regulates this drop trend?
Mine is a math and statistics question, absolutely not a complaint.
@Barkmi4 (Mike), since you care about numbers, what do your elf-eyes see?

View attachment 37128

It looks like it’s totally random. I’ve seen someone explaining it the following way and I have to say that it sounds very reasonable. Imagine that you throw a dice six times. Will it fall on each side once? Possible but most likely no. You can throw it fifty times but still there is a possibility that it won’t fall on one particular side even once.

 

[Arch]

I believe it is pure RNG, the nature of the beast is that lopsided collections will happen and will always stand out as more obvious. Over large datasets would expect the distribution to be uniform (even) but individually we are only seeing very small datasets and high randomness.

Could it be something more sinister, yes it could be but as there is no common missing piece I doubt it.

 

[Barkmi4 (Mike)]

I think everything has the same rate. The dice example above is a good one - and it’s an easy one to try at home if you want to test the theory.
As annoying as it is, I don’t think the developers need to give each item a different drop rate, because maths/randomness will make it a pain in the arse anyway 🤪

There are some launch collections I’ve completed 1,000’s of times. As time goes on, the item that I’m short of does change which tends to back up this theory.

I know there have been a few discussions about drop rates between planes, and lately someone has said that the rate is the same for all planes (I think the info came from discord?). But I don’t believe that - I‘m flying 5 flacons (3 hours) and 5 condors (12 hours). I seem to be getting a lot more drops from the condors, despite landing falcons a lot more often. I would try the bigger planes if you can, and use a spy glass from the event store. The drops will come eventually.

As a side note, if everyone on the forum posted how many of each item they have, in theory, this should be pretty balanced across every item as it would give a good sample size.
This time mine is uneven in that there is one item I have loads of, but the rest are fairly equal.

P.s. I’d give you a Jefferson if I could😅 It seem as if I have all of yours.

 

[KhrysLo]

I think everything has the same rate. The dice example above is a good one - and it’s an easy one to try at home if you want to test the theory.
As annoying as it is, I don’t think the developers need to give each item a different drop rate, because maths/randomness will make it a pain in the arse anyway 🤪

There are some launch collections I’ve completed 1,000’s of times. As time goes on, the item that I’m short of does change which tends to back up this theory.

I know there have been a few discussions about drop rates between planes, and lately someone has said that the rate is the same for all planes (I think the info came from discord?). But I don’t believe that - I‘m flying 5 flacons (3 hours) and 5 condors (12 hours). I seem to be getting a lot more drops from the condors, despite landing falcons a lot more often. I would try the bigger planes if you can, and use a spy glass from the event store. The drops will come eventually.

As a side note, if everyone on the forum posted how many of each item they have, in theory, this should be pretty balanced across every item as it would give a good sample size.
This time mine is uneven in that there is one item I have loads of, but the rest are fairly equal.
View attachment 37144
P.s. I’d give you a Jefferson if I could😅

I tend to agree about the planes. I have Owls and Hawks and most of items from Fathers of the Nation collection dropped from Hawks.

 

[VdW]

In the end, the more planes you send, the more possible drops you will get.

I manage completing events in my first year playing just by using "bowl of riches (mini spyglass)" and speeding up lots (by lots, I mean A LOT. Not only 10 flights) of Owls flights. The drop will come sooner or later.

But now that I'm flying bigger planes, I tend to agree that bigger planes have a slightly better drop than smaller planes (as was confirmed by Ivan long time ago).

 

[Teboho]

But now that I'm flying bigger planes, I tend to agree that bigger planes have a slightly better drop than smaller planes (as was confirmed by Ivan long time ago).

Ivan did say something of this sort when referring to time compensation.

 

[ArditoDesio]

 

[Martin L.]

I am also short on the starter for my tropical plane on ML2 account

 

[Bob69bob]

I love this discussion 😆😂