How drop rates work - my thoughts on it

[volly]

My thinking on drop rates - when it comes to this process, this central function of the game, I think there are a multitude of variables that influence it.

1. Neighbors - the more you have, the less chance you have for a drop.
2. Level - obviously has an impact. The higher level you are, the lower the rate for certain items.
3. Type of plane - I suspect the more planes of the same type you have, the less the drop rate is.
4. Binging on the same item over and over - I have not tested this but I think this is in the mix.
   
5. game monitoring - I've wondered if Gi will look at your game server side and make possible tweaks from time to time on items specifically for you. I see no reason why they could not do it. They do it on the 100 item limit so that tells me they can do certain thing to target specific players
   
6. Time when action occurs - I strongly believe this one is in the mix. I found for example when I clicked on say mushrooms and when I got a drop - if I clicked another mushroom in quick succession - my chance for a drop greatly increased.
   
7. Gi thinking the act of clicking is the fun thus reducing the drop rate. NOPE, WRONG, NADA, INCORRECT. Its the act of completing the task Gi. Get with the program.

Can you think of any other influences?

 

[Speed]

RNG works on time, so for example you are getting good or decent items from launch ready boxes, you should continue opening them. but if you get something like solid fuel or additional stabilizer. you should stop and try again later. same with planetariums and other chests.

I really don't think the number of neighbors affect you. I've kept mine at 180 and deleting inactive/randoms when I add a new one. but my drop rate from planetariums changed because of the update.

 

[Jgm85]

I don't get this continued barrage of posts about drop rates being lower. The drop rate is random, so you get good days and bad days, believe me I have had my fair share. But as I said in another thread, last week (most up to date version) I did 500 flights to Des Moines all in a row (Powerful Delta alliance map) and I got 36 drops, which is in the area of average for alliance drops. I posted my results over the last year in another thread for all of my alliance map drops, so I have to disagree that the drop rates are lower.

In regards to point 3 - I always feel the opposite, the more planes you have of the same type landing at the same time the more chance of a drop, been my (and many others) strategy when doing maps is to land 4+ planes at the same time.

I concede the drop rate from neighbours planetariums has dropped (more like stopped), but the other flights seem to be in the same area as always, volume is the key. This game wasn't built to be completed in 6month-1 year, I still have many things to do and have been playing for 5+ years.

 

[Free2Play]

My thinking on drop rates - when it comes to this process, this central function of the game, I think there are a multitude of variables that influence it.

1. Neighbors - the more you have, the less chance you have for a drop.
2. Level - obviously has an impact. The higher level you are, the lower the rate for certain items.
3. Type of plane - I suspect the more planes of the same type you have, the less the drop rate is.
4. Binging on the same item over and over - I have not tested this but I think this is in the mix.
   
5. game monitoring - I've wondered if Gi will look at your game server side and make possible tweaks from time to time on items specifically for you. I see no reason why they could not do it. They do it on the 100 item limit so that tells me they can do certain thing to target specific players
   
6. Time when action occurs - I strongly believe this one is in the mix. I found for example when I clicked on say mushrooms and when I got a drop - if I clicked another mushroom in quick succession - my chance for a drop greatly increased.
   
7. Gi thinking the act of clicking is the fun thus reducing the drop rate. NOPE, WRONG, NADA, INCORRECT. Its the act of completing the task Gi. Get with the program.

Can you think of any other influences?

I can't get into details, but most of your assumptions are wrong.

There's one general rule: bigger planes that require more passengers have better drop rates than smaller ones — this way higher level players don't get punished for acquiring bigger planes and progressing through the game. It might say 'very seldom' for both, because it is a difference between, say, 1% and 2% chance to get something and it is indeed very seldom in both cases, but if you have enough fuel and passengers the most viable strategy is always flying the largest planes available in the fleet.

 

[volly]

I can't get into details, but most of your assumptions are wrong.

There's one general rule: bigger planes that require more passengers have better drop rates than smaller ones — this way higher level players don't get punished for acquiring bigger planes and progressing through the game. It might say 'very seldom' for both, because it is a difference between, say, 1% and 2% chance to get something and it is indeed very seldom in both cases, but if you have enough fuel and passengers the most viable strategy is always flying the largest planes available in the fleet.

Well, you helped a bunch by disproving my theory and giving insight on how it works. Thank you!!!

 

[volly]

I can't get into details, but most of your assumptions are wrong.

There's one general rule: bigger planes that require more passengers have better drop rates than smaller ones — this way higher level players don't get punished for acquiring bigger planes and progressing through the game. It might say 'very seldom' for both, because it is a difference between, say, 1% and 2% chance to get something and it is indeed very seldom in both cases, but if you have enough fuel and passengers the most viable strategy is always flying the largest planes available in the fleet.

Here is the thing about bigger planes - they eat more fuel and passengers thus the number of planes per day that can you can send drops. To me logic says if you can roll 50 times on a 100 side die to see if you hit the 1% or you can roll a 20 sided dice 5 times to see if you can hit the 2% - I'll take the 100 side dice.
I fly a mix of both and I find overall the lower planes give me more overall in the long run. Now this may be a bit dodgy for I fly 10 small and 2 big right now. I do it for otherwise my flight rate would fall off to only 4 flights a day if I went big. It isn't just the plane is big. It is the LONG turn around time for the flight. Otherwise I'm forced to use reserves on fuel to speed it up and I rather not do that.

 

[Pit1024]

I can't get into details, but most of your assumptions are wrong.

There's one general rule: bigger planes that require more passengers have better drop rates than smaller ones — this way higher level players don't get punished for acquiring bigger planes and progressing through the game. It might say 'very seldom' for both, because it is a difference between, say, 1% and 2% chance to get something and it is indeed very seldom in both cases, but if you have enough fuel and passengers the most viable strategy is always flying the largest planes available in the fleet.

I'm wondering just theoretically how do you measure the drop rate: on a single event or on a period?
What I mean - saying some drop rate is seldom (doesn't matter from flight or from own building) do you refer to a single flight resp. single click on the building (and then, as shorter the flight, resp. the recharge period of the building, as more occurrences in a measure period, say of 24h)? Or you refer to the max number of occurrences within a period (say 24 flights with duration 1 hour give the same (similar) drop rate as 3 flights lasting 8 hours)?

 

[Free2Play]

I'm wondering just theoretically how do you measure the drop rate: on a single event or on a period?
What I mean - saying some drop rate is seldom (doesn't matter from flight or from own building) do you refer to a single flight resp. single click on the building (and then, as shorter the flight, resp. the recharge period of the building, as more occurrences in a measure period, say of 24h)? Or you refer to the max number of occurrences within a period (say 24 flights with duration 1 hour give the same (similar) drop rate as 3 flights lasting 8 hours)?

It's always a single event, and chances for all items from a flight or a building are independent.* That's why on higher levels you might fly 50 times somewhere and get nothing except coins and experience points, and then on 51st you might get 2 or 3 items from the same flight.

* Legal disclaimer here should be something like 'to the best of my knowledge based on observations made from playing the game'.

Sometimes the chances are really low, that's true, but — again, that's purely 'my experience as a player' for legal reasons — the number of your neighbors, your level, the number of repeating flights, specific tweaks for anyone — none of those are measured and evaluated for getting anything with a chance. The game is complex enough, and breaks often enough, without making such a system that we have no hope of testing and checking that it works as intended internally.

 

[cooldogmsa]

My drop rate sucks. I currently have no massive spotlights and every location that can drop them requires one to fly there and I only have 6 friends none of which can send me one. That part of drop rate needs to change!

 

[volly]

My drop rate sucks. I currently have no massive spotlights and every location that can drop them requires one to fly there and I only have 6 friends none of which can send me one. That part of drop rate needs to change!

This is easily remedied - just get more friends with the friend request function in the game. Once you do that, you most likely will get the stuff you need to fly.

 

[javi]

I don't know if it is the fact to read more and more about poor rate, but I start to have the impression that since 2 weeks it is very bad.
Since this time not a single item except repair stuff.
in the past 2 weeks, I did 600 filght to alliance destination and nothing.
in the past I got always 1-2 items per 100 flights.

The usual destinations didn't get anything as well, even for an intem from Karachi requested by Salma and listed as seldom. Usually such item are easy to get, but now nothing...

Normally I am a patient player, but 2 weeks without progress in quests is quite boring

 

[volly]

I don't know if it is the fact to read more and more about poor rate, but I start to have the impression that since 2 weeks it is very bad.
Since this time not a single item except repair stuff.
in the past 2 weeks, I did 600 filght to alliance destination and nothing.
in the past I got always 1-2 items per 100 flights.

The usual destinations didn't get anything as well, even for an intem from Karachi requested by Salma and listed as seldom. Usually such item are easy to get, but now nothing...

Normally I am a patient player, but 2 weeks without progress in quests is quite boring

Question for you: Are you expecting drops to complete collections?
I ask for there are many items that are not part of a collection that can be dropped and they are easily missed when a flight is unloaded.
Also the specific destination may not have items that drop

 

[javi]

Question for you: Are you expecting drops to complete collections?
I ask for there are many items that are not part of a collection that can be dropped and they are easily missed when a flight is unloaded.
Also the specific destination may not have items that drop

no I was talking from the collection items. Specilly the ones from alliances destination. Repairs and "non related to city" items are delivered as usual.

But Yesterday I got finally a alliance destination item after more than 700 flights.

 

[Navigata07]

What I've noticed is that even though all 5 items in a collection have an equal drop rate, that usually isn't the case. There is always a skew in the percentages, and there is one item that is even rarer to get compared to the other 4. Anyone else experience this?

 

[Winitall63]

Yes! For the longest time I couldn't get a nocturnal to drop. Now I can get them but rarely an armillary sphere.

 

[Navigata07]

Yes! For the longest time I couldn't get a nocturnal to drop. Now I can get them but rarely an armillary sphere.

Lol for me its the astrograph
That's the reason why GI refused to tell me what the actual percentages for drop rates are. If they give a set number, they would be held accountable when they skewed the drop rate of a particular item. Guess it's their way of upping the difficulty.

 

[Bertron]

just out of curiosity, what are your spreads for lost and found items? I really dont think every item has the same likelyhood of dropping..

 

[Navigata07]

just out of curiosity, what are your spreads for lost and found items? I really dont think every item has the same likelyhood of dropping..View attachment 9799

For me its the same exact thing. As I said in the post above yours, the drop rates are definitely skewed. Even though all items are "very seldom", there is always one item that has an even lower drop rate to make it nearly impossible to finish a collection

 

[Below_Average_AC_Player]

just out of curiosity, what are your spreads for lost and found items? I really dont think every item has the same likelyhood of dropping..View attachment 9799

I have the same spreadsheet as you (placement according to amount of items):
1. Sunglasses (most items)
2. Book
3. Butterfly Net
4. Phone
5. Kick Scooter (few items)

IMO is not a surprise that kick scooter is the lacking item. The kick scooter only drops from propeller driven and turbo props, while butterfly net drops from 3 planes and sunglasses from all (?) planes, etc.
So it would be normal to assume that kick scooter is at the bottom of the list (if the types of guestplanes are fairly distributed and have the same droprate within the items in a certain collection)
I find it a bit odd that we have more phones than butterfly nets, when the butterfly net drops from 3 planes, while phone drops from 7 planes. With a big sample size, it should be the other way around.

But, there are other collections that are more comparable, like the orbital telescope. If I am not mistaken, those items drop from the exact same buildings and I would expect them to drop fairly equally. I have an equal number on all items, except photometer which is 0.
Now, those spreads would be nice to know.

 

[LX Air - Teresa]

I have the same spreadsheet as you (placement according to amount of items):

But, there are other collections that are more comparable, like the orbital telescope. If I am not mistaken, those items drop from the exact same buildings and I would expect them to drop fairly equally. I have an equal number on all items, except photometer which is 0.
Now, those spreads would be nice to know.

hi @Below_Average_AC_Player
in that particular collection, my "missing item" is the (sorry if wrongly translated) spectometer. my actual distribution is (left to right) 24-0-13-20-20
so, even though is a rather small sample, i could guess that spectometer and "wide-angle camera"(?) are the rarest (though not equaly rare)
that somewhat confirms a suspicion of mine: there is always a "rarest" item, though not the same for everybody...