Are drop rates for a single item within a collection rigged?

[Bob69bob]

It’s a suggestion that comes up regularly - especially during events where the time to get real data is extremely limited and people are under pressure to get things completed. Hopefully the following can put the old misconceptions to rest?

Quite often, snapshots will be posted like this...

It‘s not surprising that, when first looked at, you could cry “foul play“ at GI and be pretty annoyed by variation. Funnily enough, people will respond with things like, “mine is the same except I’m short of wristbands!”. If we crunch the numbers, it looks something like this..
gfddfghhggj 29% gyggfjj19% Hggffh 31% jhgvfj 21% vjhhvj0 %

It doesn’t look too good!


But let’s introduce some longer term data and see what happens...
​

Almost the identical picture...

But now the numbers look a little different!
hgf 20% ggvff20% gdd20% hh x20% ifs ~20%

Go figure! ​

 

[Barkmi4 (Mike)]

I have quite a small spread on that collection, which is impressive.
Its a strange collection to base things on, since I will have used hundreds of these so the 800 collected isn’t a true reflection if you percentage it up over game play.

This event collection on the other hand... Here I won’t have used many at all (up to 5 per year for a few years?). This spread is questionable...